By The Global Strategy Group Research Team
The 2020 elections were a watershed moment, not just for our country but for us as pollsters — as polling results in many cases overstated the Democratic margin of victory. In the subsequent months after the election, much has been written about the challenges facing the polling industry. Most recently, some have said the problems are “impossible” to fix. At GSG, we are not that pessimistic. Instead, our team has been hard at work unraveling and addressing the increasing challenges facing the accuracy of political polling. Since the 2020 election, we have rigorously…
Polling After 2020
By Nick Gourevitch, Managing Director and Partner, GSG Politics
If you are reading this, odds are that you have probably heard a lot of takes on the polls this year and you probably have your own too. Frank Luntz says the “polling profession is done,” while Nate Silver says he’s “amazed that polls are as good as they are.” David Leonhardt of the New York Times wrote recently about 2020 being a “black eye” for polling but then asked a very good follow-up question: “Is part of the problem the public’s overly high expectation of precision?”
Yesterday afternoon, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey announced the company will ban political ads on the platform
The changes, announced by Dorsey in an extended Twitter thread, will apply to both advertising relating to an electoral candidate and issue advocacy ads. The policy will be presented in more detail on November 15 and implemented beginning November 22. (Twitter Will Ban All Political Ads, C.E.O. Jack Dorsey Says, New York Times)
The seismic change will have huge implications for digital advertising and public affairs. Below are our top initial takeaways:
By: Global Strategy Group Research Team
“What’s the best methodology for polling these days?”
Our polling team at GSG gets asked this question all the time. “Are phone polls really accurate anymore?” This topic has been of particular focus since Trump’s election but it did not start with that event. Questions about the viability of the “gold standard” methodology began with the decline of landlines and the rise of mobile phones — and have only been amplified as the internet has become Americans’ preferred medium for communication.
Telephone polling is still a strong and accurate approach in many situations. We…
During this year’s Super Bowl, we saw a number of commercials that appeared to either explicitly or implicitly, take a political stance. A lumber company tackled immigration. An automobile company addressed gender equity. A tech company embraced diversity.
These messages were broadcast to a huge audience; according to Nielsen, Super Bowl LI was the fifth highest watched TV program ever with over 111 million viewers.
And while the uptick in political undertones was obvious on Sunday night, the truth is that the majority of companies have not taken strong public stances on social and political issues. While the assumption is…
The 2016 campaign represents a turning point for digital communications. Gone are the days of digital proving its worth, feeding on the scraps that fell from the table of TV buys and mail drops. 2016 will be more than the year of Facebook or YouTube or Snapchat. Instead this will be the year that we seek a true understanding of how all the gears and cogs of the modern media landscape can work together. It is an exciting time for those of us who sit at the nexus of the worlds of campaigns, research and digital.
At Global Strategy Group…
As the Republican candidates sparred over taxes, health care, and immigration, the ideological fissures within the GOP were on full display in the September 16th CNN Primary debate. But the Republican hopefuls did have one big thing in common: they all called for smaller government.
For decades, GOP leaders have used smaller government as a solution to society’s challenges, rallying Republicans behind a simple and effective talking point. Compared to imagery of cutting down government’s size, Democrats have the more complex task of defending the role of government and detailing ways to make it better.
The Republican message may be…